Let’s start with some statistics. I always begin each season
hoping we will win every home match and draw every away match (as opposed to
two points per game), and as the season progresses I keep track of how many
points we’re ahead of, or behind target. Usually we are behind that target very
early on, and never retrieve the situation.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
So far this season we have 22 points from 10 home matches,
but 4 of them have been draws, so we are 8 points behind target at home.
However this season we have 29 points from 13 away matches,
which is 16 points ahead of target.
Overall we are 8 points ahead of our target, which gives us
a bit of a cushion against a bad spell.
Using the same measure on our rivals we have:
Sheffield United 2 points behind target.
Sheffield Wednesday 3 points ahead of target.
MKD on target.
Huddersfield 4 points behind target.
Stevenage 7 points behind target.
Indeed we already have our required 23 away points, with an
extra 6 in the bag, which means we would need to win one more away match, lose
the rest away, but win our remaining home matches to end the season 1 point
ahead of a stunning season on 93 points.
A word of warning is that Sheffield Wednesday are our nearest
realistic rival, but if we lose at Hillsborough it will mean they tread water
but we only drop one point, if we draw or win they take a bit of damage.
A win at Yeovil and a defeat at Orient is
better that drawing both of those away games.
However we are not mathematically safe from relegation, and
we are only at the half way mark. When you look at how Celtic have overtaken a
15 point deficit on Rangers in seven weeks you realise that we have a very very
long way to go. I take comfort from the fact that we have only lost twice, the
Orient defeat is easily explained, and Stevenage was a deflected effort, a bit
unlucky there. Orient and Stevenage are the only two teams who can do the
double over us, we could do the double over 15 teams in our division.
So how do we explain things? I put it down to the new
regime, and to the brilliant efforts of the coaching staff led by Chris Powell.
We clearly have a plan and it has worked so far. We have signed young,
promising players and could sell many of our current squad for good money if we
became financially threatened. The club is strong for the future, the youth
players are likely to produce two or three excellent players for us, and our progress in the FA Youth Cup will be worth watching. I realise
the hidden costs of all of our signings is likely to be high, but we have had
some income too, and we have, as I said, not signed players with little resale
value.
We have also tried hard to keep hold of our support, with
success. To average over 16k in the third division is remarkable, and the way
we sold out Fulham so quickly is evidence that the support is there, indeed the
reception at Orient after the defeat is a cause for optimism, the goodwill
factor is high just now.
It may be the easy answer to say ‘more of the same’. I
reckon we still need to do some more shrewd business in the transfer window,
and also to look for more developments in our playing strategy and tactics to
account for playing desperate teams, teams turning the corner of their season,
teams who 'park the bus', poor pitches, and injuries and suspensions…and sheer bad luck.
Three things I would want to see for the second half of the
season are:
Signing a slippery forward to cover for the style of BWP.
For the fans to now realise they have a part to play, they’re
in this thing too, and give more or less unconditional support for the rest of
the season.
For Chris Powell to emphasise to all and sundry that we have
achieved nothing yet, and the only way to go is to work as hard, or harder, in
training and matches. (‘The Reds are going up’ was an unfortunate chant at
Orient).
COYR
Comments
Ditto
Excellent summary, Seth and one which should give everyone that reads it a " heads up" for the games to come.
Certainly bucked me up after returning home, settling down to watch " Monsters" , Sky plussed a while back, to find we only had the first 60mins ! DOH ! Anyone know how it ends ???
Half of the season gone and we have over half the points needed for automatic promotion.
There's still a lot of football to be played, but our early season form has built decent foundations for the back half, all we need to do now is finish things off.